Saxby’s Vulnerable Poll Numbers

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What Taxby Saxby Chambliss knew privately became partially public yesterday when a polling company (that no one is a fan of) released numbers showing his vulnerability.

The key takeaway is this simple; “just 38 percent of Republican primary voters want Chambliss to win the GOP nomination.”

Poll respondents were given hypothetical These numbers mean nothing outside of measuring name-id. Well, not nothing, but they are very raw indicators. I’ve bolded the prospective challengers considering a run with a serious chance of getting in.

  • Herman Cain bests Chambliss, 50-36
  • Chambliss bests Atlanta Native, Florida Congressman Allen West 47-26
  • Chambliss bests 6th District Congressman Tom Price 50-22
  • Chambliss bests Commentator Erick Erickson 51-22
  • Chambliss bests Former Secretary of State Karen Handel 52-23
  • Chambliss bests 10th District Congressman Paul Broun 57-14

Herman’s numbers, as a challenger to a sitting Senator in a state ran by an establishment, are huge. If he got into the race, he’d be the next Senator from Georgia. Don’t look for Herman on the ballot though. With a new radio contract and other ventures in his wheelhouse, he’s fine just where he is.

Though a source tells me that isn’t stopping him from making a few calls. These numbers deserved to be bragged about so he can’t be blamed and strategist Mark Block wouldn’t mind another go at it.

Eyes are on Price right now. His move will dictate the shape of this race and he’s the opposition’s favorite. Price has everything going for him with a capable fundraising apparatus, he has a geographical base, not just a conservative voting record, but has lead many efforts including the repeal and replace effort against Obamacare, and metro Atlanta knows his name.

Of all races with Republican Senators facing potential primary bids supported by the base, Price has the greatest electoral chances of besting the incumbent. Price is known as a principled, but play-it-safe player; will he watch this opportunity fade?

Broun is the weakest opposition candidate. While no Democrat has a prayers chance of winning this race, Broun would provide some fodder for liberals and their fundraising efforts.

Ninth District Congressman Tom Graves really ought to consider mounting a bid if Price passes.

Let’s not forget Georgia’s run-off rules. A three-way primary, assuming the opposition candidates come from different parts of the state, would hurt Saxby. While it’s unlikely Saxby can survive a primary challenge, there’s no surviving a Republican run-off should he be caught in one.

As the race shapes up with members of the Congressional delegation looking at the race, veteran peach state blogger, Jason Pye has it right.

The word I’m hearing from many activists in Georgia and elsewhere is that they prefer Price and are ready to dump resources in the Peach State to help him win. They respect Broun, but feel that he can’t beat Chambliss.

Why does Saxby hate math? Because math hates him.